23 January 2025

Strategic Prospects of Trump's Policy in the Middle East: Alliances, Challenges, and Risks of Global Destabilization

Arina Lugovskaya, Expert at CMES.

Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and one of the first leaders to congratulate him on this victory was Israel’s representatives. This event is significant as it symbolizes the continuation and deepening of the close strategic ties between the U.S. and Israel, which were established during his previous term. Despite the eccentricity of his rhetoric and unexpected moves in international politics, Trump has proven himself to be a reliable ally of Israel. In the context of global political changes and instability in the Middle East, U.S. support, especially in the form of Trump, has become an important factor ensuring stability and security for Israel.

During his first presidential term, Trump achieved significant success in advancing diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab countries. The number of countries that established diplomatic relations with Israel increased from two to six, signaling considerable progress in the normalization process. Given this, it is expected that in his new administration, Trump will continue efforts to create a powerful regional alliance that could resemble an "Arab NATO." Key participants in this alliance could include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Jordan. It is important to note that despite efforts to unite Arab states, Iran and its allies, such as the Houthis in Yemen, will remain opponents of this alliance. Israel, as a historic ally of the U.S., is unlikely to stay on the sidelines of this process, becoming not only a strategic partner but also a key player in ensuring regional stability. This military alliance could be named the “Middle East Treaty Organization.”

One of the crucial factors determining the success or failure of this initiative will be the U.S.’s ability to maintain internal stability within the alliance, avoiding inter-Arab disagreements such as the one that occurred in 2017 between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. However, in light of the changing political climate in the Arab world, including the more flexible policies of the UAE and Bahrain, which signed the “Abraham Accords” with Israel in 2020, it is expected that Trump will focus on strengthening these agreements and expanding their geographic scope. Simultaneously, the U.S. will increase its presence in the Middle East, allowing Washington not only to maintain regional stability but also to contain global players such as China and Russia, whose influence in the Middle East has notably grown in recent years.

An equally important part of Trump’s foreign policy will be the continuation of his hardline stance toward Iran. The "maximum pressure" policy and sanctions imposed on Iran were aimed at curbing its nuclear and missile programs. The escalation of tensions following the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 could persist under the new administration. This will create additional risks for regional security, as Iran is likely to respond to the increased pressure not only militarily but also by using hybrid methods, such as supporting armed groups in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. In response, the U.S. may increase its military presence in the region, which could lead to further deterioration of relations with Tehran and possibly to a new round of confrontation. Trump is likely to maintain the strategy of economic isolation of Iran while strengthening a regional coalition aimed at countering its influence.

Syria will remain a key focus of Trump’s foreign policy. After the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the situation in the country remains unstable, and the U.S., along with Turkey and other regional players, is trying to pursue its interests in the context of the struggle for influence. Despite the possible withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, linked to strengthening relations with Turkey, the situation in Syria remains highly tense. An especially important aspect is the support for Kurdish forces, which played a key role in the fight against ISIS (banned in Russia), but whose position could be weakened in the event of further rapprochement between the U.S. and Turkey. This places the U.S. in a dilemma: how to balance relations with Turkey, which is interested in limiting Kurdish influence, and with the Kurdish forces, who remain important partners for Washington in the fight against terrorism.

The complexity of the situation also lies in the fact that Turkey, strengthening its role in the region, continues to act within its own national strategy, which does not always align with the interests of the U.S. and its allies. Mutual grievances over Turkey’s support for Palestinian groups and tense relations with Israel could become a significant challenge for U.S. diplomacy, as any increase in Turkey’s influence in Syria or Iraq could affect regional security and lead to a new escalation of contradictions in relations with Israel. Thus, the U.S. faces a difficult task: how to keep Turkey within the Western alliance while not jeopardizing the interests of its allies in the region.

Trump's policy on the Middle East will continue to focus on U.S. national interests, which implies an increase in military presence and the active use of diplomatic mechanisms to contain the influence of strategic adversaries, such as Iran and Russia. However, in the context of maintaining a hardline stance toward these countries, there is a significant risk of conflict escalation and the emergence of new humanitarian crises, which could create additional difficulties for both the administration itself and Europe, which is facing the consequences of migration flows caused by military actions.

Thus, Trump's strategy in the Middle East, despite its consistency and determination, may lead to deepening conflicts and regional instability. The policy of containment, bolstered by military actions and economic pressure, may continue, but it will be fraught with high risks. Given these realities, it can be predicted that attempts by the U.S. to achieve long-term peace and stability in the region will encounter significant obstacles. While the rhetoric of normalization and peace initiatives may continue, the actual policy aimed at strengthening the influence of the U.S. and its partners is likely to push the region toward further destabilization and a new escalation of tensions.

The opinion of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies may not coincide with the author's view.